Global Oil Giants, Local Risks: A Valuation Breakdown of 2025’s Top Producers

Comparing EV/EBITDA, margins, and market sentiment across Aramco, Petrobras, and ExxonMobil.

As oil prices wobble on shifting OPEC+ policy and diverging demand forecasts, investors are asking a sharper question: which global oil majors are priced for strength—and which are skating on sentiment?

In this Valuation Lab report, we dissect the 2025 EV/EBITDA multiples of three strategically different producers:
— Saudi Aramco, the dividend titan backed by sovereign stability
— Petrobras, a volatile value play with deep reserves and deeper political risk
— ExxonMobil, the American giant straddling capital discipline and global reach

By examining where current market prices diverge from forward-looking fundamentals, we reveal who’s overvalued, who’s overlooked, and where the risk-reward is most compelling.

Let’s break down the numbers—and the narratives—behind these oil titans.

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Company Profiles

Valuation Snapshot:
Aramco commands the highest revenue scale by far, generating over $1.8 trillion in 2024 revenue—nearly 5x ExxonMobil and 20x Petrobras. However, Aramco’s higher EV/EBITDA ratio (7.00) suggests that the market prices in its sovereign backing, strategic reserves, and dividend policy. Petrobras, by contrast, trades at a deep discount (4.46 EV/EBITDA), reflecting political risk and earnings volatility. ExxonMobil sits in the middle at 6.36, balancing scale, resilience, and market trust in U.S. energy infrastructure.

Saudi Aramco – The Sovereign Giant

Dividend Policy:
As of March 2025 (Reuters), Aramco plans to reduce its dividend payout by nearly one-third—from $124 billion in 2024 to approximately $85.4 billion in 2025. Despite this cut, it remains the largest dividend payer globally, offering a strong income stream supported by state interests.

Ownership & Strategic Alignment:
The Saudi government owns 81.5% of Aramco directly, with an additional 16% held via the Public Investment Fund (PIF). This tight state control ensures alignment with national fiscal priorities but also increases exposure to policy-driven decisions.

Capital Expenditures:
Aramco is targeting $52–$58 billion in total capital investment for 2025, up from $50.3 billion in 2024 (+19% YoY). The bulk of this spending is focused on upstream oil and gas projects, particularly natural gas expansion and capacity maintenance.

Geopolitical Exposure:
Aramco faces risks tied to Middle East volatility, global oil trade politics, and energy transition headwinds. Climate policy, regional tensions, and social instability may challenge long-term investor confidence.

Petrobras – High Yield, High Risk

Dividend Yield:
Petrobras continues to offer the highest yield among peers at 19.27% (Q1 2025, Yahoo Finance), returning $2.07 billion to shareholders. This outsized yield reflects both generous payouts and heightened risk.

Political & Economic Risk:
Petrobras operates under significant political influence from the Brazilian government, including ongoing debates around dividend policy, reinvestment mandates, and governance. These factors, combined with macroeconomic volatility, contribute to frequent valuation swings.

Capital Expenditures:
The company is investing heavily in upstream oil production, particularly in Brazil’s prolific pre-salt basins. It is also allocating incremental capital toward low-carbon energy initiatives, though this remains secondary to core E&P.

Geopolitical Exposure:
While less globally exposed, Petrobras is acutely sensitive to Brazil’s domestic political cycle, regulatory instability, and corruption legacy. These internal risks often outweigh its operational strengths.

ExxonMobil – Balanced and Resilient

Dividend Yield:
ExxonMobil offers a dividend yield of ~3.83%, underpinned by a decades-long record of consistent dividend increases. It remains a dependable income stock for conservative investors.

Financial Strength:
Exxon leads among U.S. oil majors in earnings growth, outperforming both Chevron and Shell in recent quarters. As noted in my Q1 2025 comparison article, Exxon has demonstrated superior margin management and capital efficiency.

Capital Expenditures:
Exxon reported $5.9 billion in CapEx for Q1 2025, in line with its full-year guidance of $27–$29 billion. Investments continue to focus on upstream development, infrastructure, and emissions-reduction technologies.

Geopolitical Exposure:
Despite global operations, Exxon has shown strong resilience to geopolitical volatility. Exposure to the Middle East and fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict are notable risks, but Exxon’s diversified portfolio and operational scale mitigate these threats better than peers.

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Methodology

This analysis applies a relative valuation framework to assess the enterprise value of Aramco, Petrobras, and ExxonMobil using 2025 projected EV/EBITDA multiples. These three companies were selected to reflect diversity in geopolitical exposure, ownership structure, and strategic focus, representing the Middle East, Latin America, and North America respectively.

Valuation Metric: EV/EBITDA

The Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is the primary metric used, widely regarded in energy finance for its ability to:

• Normalize across capital structures and tax regimes,

• Exclude non-cash accounting items (e.g., depreciation),

• Highlight pure operational profitability.

This makes it especially useful in comparing state-owned giants like Aramco and Petrobras with publicly held multinationals like ExxonMobil.

Data Sources & Estimations

• Enterprise Value (EV): Calculated using market capitalization plus net debt, based on Q1 2025 data.

• EBITDA Estimates: Sourced from Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available, and supplemented by my own models incorporating:

  • 2024–2025 production guidance,

  • Capital expenditure outlooks,

  • Assumed Brent crude oil price of $70 per barrel.

Normalization & Adjustments

To ensure cross-company comparability, several adjustments were made:

• Exclusion of non-recurring items such as asset sales, impairments, or legal settlements from EBITDA.

• Currency normalization for Petrobras: financial statements were converted from BRL to USD using an average exchange rate of 5.00 BRL/USD.

• Treatment of subsidies and government dividends in Aramco’s case was excluded from operational earnings estimates.

Figures reflect either trailing twelve months (TTM) or full-year 2025 projections, depending on disclosure availability.

Objective

This methodology is designed to provide a standardized, apples-to-apples comparison of how efficiently each company transforms enterprise value into operational earnings power under a shared macro oil environment. The approach emphasizes operational value creation over headline profits or dividend yield alone.

🔒 The next section includes exclusive 2025 EBITDA forecasts, valuation tables, and investor positioning strategy based on EV/EBITDA modeling. Upgrade to a premium subscription to access full financial breakdowns and my in-depth valuation insights.